Reports of the death of Iran’s morality police seem premature, but growing protests against the extremist regime could eventually lead to much-needed change in that oppressive state.

While the regime change long called for by US hawks may not be forthcoming, the West should be supporting those pushing in the right direction.

Statements by Attorney General Mohammad Jafar Montazeri taken to mean the morality police had been disbanded spread quickly, but soon the rebuttals began. It was not just the regime, but activists who took exception to the “fake news” that was perhaps more wishful thinking than deliberate.

Still, protests continue to call for change in Iran, where nationwide strikes are set to up the ante.

“Nationwide strikes, particularly in key sectors, could be used to put time on the side of protestors while creating chaos and financial issues for the state,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told CNBC, stressing the importance of maintaining pressure on the regime.

The apparent disorder in the government, he added, shows “the imperative of keeping up domestic and foreign pressure against the Islamic Republic. And nobody understands this better than the Iranian people, who have been bravely protesting for almost three months now and are looking to amplify street power with strike power.”

The protests came in reaction to the detention and killing on September 23 of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish-Iranian woman who died while in custody of Iran’s morality police. The death of the 22-year-old woman – she was detained for allegedly not wearing her hijab properly – sparked widespread internal turmoil and another round of international condemnation in a pariah state not unfamiliar with international outrage.

Canada has joined in with the repercussions. Most recently, Ottawa announced that Canada has designated the Islamic Republic of Iran as a regime that has engaged in terrorism and systematic and gross human rights violations. That means that tens of thousands of senior members of the Iranian regime, including many members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are now inadmissible to Canada.

Canada had already joined in further sanctions following Amini’s killing, with the last month’s announcement adding on.

Clearly there’s more to be done. In addition to its egregious behaviour at home, Iran’s actions abroad, including weapons proliferation and malicious cyber activity, continue to threaten international peace and security and demonstrate the country’s complete disregard for the rules-based international system. Iran continues to use state-sponsored disinformation to spread false narratives that attempt to justify its policies. 

Its pursuit of nuclear technology alone has been the subject of international sanctions for the past 15 years.

From the recent crackdown and killing of protesters, to the seizure of British hostages and the murder of a Canadian journalist in 2003, Iran’s militant rulers have not endeared themselves to many.

The parade of violations of international laws and norms mean Iran’s militant rulers have won themselves few friends in the world. That’s made it easy to international support for sanctions, especially those related to controlling Iran’s bid for nuclear weapons, but there’s no appetite for the death and destruction that would come with a war in the vein of Iraq, though the prospect of such – or bluster thereof – has cooled significantly since the days of saber-rattling led by the former occupant of the White House.

There are more than a few shades of the 2003 invasion of Iraq in that kind of hyperbole about Iran.

Even for hawks, however, the interests of the oil industry may trump the desire to impose US will on yet another reluctant state.

Therein lies the issue that arises in any discussion about the region: oil. We might not care for the people we get it from, but we want it nonetheless.

So far, concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and very real support for Islamic militants play second fiddle to the flow of oil, particularly to China and Russia, both of which have veto power at the UN Security Council.

The US, too, has much at stake in the region, though the previous administration opted for diplomatic approaches, proceeding warily. While chastising Tehran, their hold on the moral high ground even then was precarious.

Having invaded Iraq under dubious pretexts, the US position was steadily undermined by revelations that the reasons for war were unfounded.

Iran may indeed be a major threat to the region – there are plenty of experts who make a case for that stance. But the Americans cannot now count on automatic support for action against Iran, if only increased sanctions led by the United Nations.

Ironically, the case against Iran is much stronger than it was in Iraq. Iran’s previous nuclear posturing and fundamentalist bent are far larger threats. Still, that country is only of interest because of its natural gas and oil reserves, and for its strategic location. If Iraq is any model, those factors will play the largest role in whether a war expands to Iran.

For now, the key is to keep Iran isolated, making it pay a steep price for its authoritarianism, its radicalism, its support of extremism and suppression of the rights of its people. There’s also the issue of its cyber crimes and support of other pariah regimes, including Russia and North Korea, not to mention China.

Iran is said to be supplying arms to Russia in its illegal assault on Ukraine, making sanctions even more pressing given the need to support Kyiv in its efforts to drive Russians out of the county, including Crimea.

Complicating matters is the issue of oil, which both curtails the pressure put on Iran and Russia and leads to extensive efforts to bypass sanctions. The latter loopholes not always countered as aggressively as they might otherwise be if the trades in question didn’t involve oil and gas.

That internal pressures are mounting against repressive dictators in Tehran and Moscow is something we can support in hopes that change comes organically.