fbpx
6.2 C
Elmira
Tuesday, December 10, 2019
Connecting Our Communities

Kitchener-Conestoga too close to call

Local riding had been leaning Conservative, but forecast shifts amid national changes with two weeks left in federal election

TRENDING

Restored Victorian home in Elmira the subject of TV competition

Along with the influx of visitors that comes with the holiday season, Elmira will see one new...

New MP jumps to the next stage

Ever since he was elected as the new Liberal Member of Parliament for Kitchener-Conestoga during the October...

Meet the candidates

By Veronica Reiner & Aneta Rebiszewski Five candidates are vying for your vote in...

Historical Society Annual General Meeting

The 42nd Annual General Meeting of the Historical Society of St. Boniface and Maryhill Community was held...

THIS WEEK

Elmira
light rain
6.2 ° C
11.1 °
2.8 °
86 %
6.7kmh
90 %
Tue
3 °
Wed
-2 °
Thu
-3 °
Fri
2 °
Sat
4 °

With less than five percentage points separating the Conservatives and Liberals in the riding, Kitchener-Conestoga has become too close to call with less than two weeks before the federal election.

In his latest seat projections released Tuesday, Wilfrid Laurier University political scientist Barry Kay shifted the forecast for the riding, which had been leaning Conservative. That being the case, he still sees incumbent MP Harold Albrecht as likely to keep his seat.

“I would certainly put the Conservatives ahead at this point … in Kitchener-Conestoga.”

The close race is reminiscent of the 2015 election, in which Albrecht took 43.3 per cent, while Liberal challenger Tim Louis got 42.8 per cent.

Over time, however, the nature of the riding is likely to shift, making it less likely to be as Conservative-friendly as it has been – Albrecht has held it since 2006 – due to demographic shifts, Kay added.

“The riding’s changing. There’s more and more suburbanization, and that’s likely to change … how it votes,” he said, pointing to the Kitchener urban component gaining strength over the rural portions of the riding.

That would be indicative of an already established divide between rural and urban parts of the country, with suburban areas – particularly the likes of the so-called 905 area around Toronto – providing swing votes.

Nationally, Kay’s projections show a slight shift of one or two seats in favour of the Conservatives in the past week based on recent polling numbers, though the polls don’t yet reflect the televised leaders’ debate from October 7.

The update data on the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy site puts the Liberals in a minority government situation with 156 seats, down from 184 it took in 2015. Kay’s projection has the Conservatives at 137 seats (99 in 2015), the NDP at 18 (44), the Bloc Quebecois at 20 (10), the Greens with five (one), the People’s Party of Canada with one and one independent.

The Bloc’s resurgence in Quebec will take seats away from the NDP, he predicted, with PPC leader Maxime Bernier retaining his seat despite switching from the Conservatives. The Green Party’s projected five seats would come from British Columbia, also eating into NDP support.

Ontario is likely to be the difference-maker in ultimately deciding who holds power after October 21.

To encourage thoughtful and respectful conversations, first and last names will appear with each submission to The Observer's online community. Pseudonyms are not permitted. By submitting a comment, you accept that The Observer has the right to reproduce and publish that comment in whole or in part, in any manner The Observer chooses. Please note that The Observer does not endorse the opinions expressed in comments. Comments on this story are moderated according to our submission guidelines. Comments are welcome while open. We reserve the right to close comments at any time.

LIVING HERE

Strong demand for traditional real Christmas trees can exceed supply

With Christmas just a few weeks away there’s only a short time left to pick out the perfect tree, but what will you choose: real or fake? Many retailers are facing dilemmas that...

In Print. Online. In Pictures. In Depth.

You obviously love community journalism. Thanks for visiting today. If you have a great local story, let us know.

Kings win another pair, solidify hold on first place

Seven is considered a lucky number. The Sugar Kings likely agree after putting up seven goals twice on route to a pair...

Answering the childhood question that rolls around at the holidays

Get into the Christmas spirit with a fresh retelling of a classic tale inspired by real events in Elora Community Theatre’s lastest offering.

Jacks fall to second after losing twice over the weekend

Sunday’s lousy weather may not have been to everyone’s liking, but the Wellesley Applejacks might have been the only ones happy...

Putting the cold on ice with the annual hat and mitten toss at Saturday’s Sugar Kings game

There’ll be no need to wait until somebody scores three goals to toss hats out onto the ice, as the Elmira Sugar...

Even those with jobs are increasingly reliant on food banks

An increasing number of full- and part-time workers across Ontario are accessing food bank services, a trend that can be seen in...

Getting drivers to slow down a slow process in Woolwich Township

Traffic issues, particularly speeding, are a frequent source of public complaints received by Woolwich officials. Often more perception than reality, the topic is...
- Advertisement -