5.3 C
Friday, April 3, 2020
Connecting Our Communities

Kitchener-Conestoga too close to call

Local riding had been leaning Conservative, but forecast shifts amid national changes with two weeks left in federal election


News Briefs

Woolwich nixes traffic islands Displeased with the troublesome pedestrian islands installed during the Region of Waterloo’s reconstruction of Church Street...

Elmira company producing hand sanitizer as virus hits

Usually focused on your taste buds rather than your finger tips, Elmira-based Murphy’s Law Distillery has branched out...

A message from the publisher

Clearly, these are challenging times for all of us. Our world is more interconnected than ever, making facing...

Avoid all non-essential public gatherings, health officials advise

There is no safe number when it comes to public gatherings, says the region’s acting medical officer of...


light rain
5.3 ° C
7.2 °
3.3 °
81 %
90 %
6 °
10 °
12 °
15 °
14 °

With less than five percentage points separating the Conservatives and Liberals in the riding, Kitchener-Conestoga has become too close to call with less than two weeks before the federal election.

In his latest seat projections released Tuesday, Wilfrid Laurier University political scientist Barry Kay shifted the forecast for the riding, which had been leaning Conservative. That being the case, he still sees incumbent MP Harold Albrecht as likely to keep his seat.

“I would certainly put the Conservatives ahead at this point … in Kitchener-Conestoga.”

The close race is reminiscent of the 2015 election, in which Albrecht took 43.3 per cent, while Liberal challenger Tim Louis got 42.8 per cent.

Over time, however, the nature of the riding is likely to shift, making it less likely to be as Conservative-friendly as it has been – Albrecht has held it since 2006 – due to demographic shifts, Kay added.

“The riding’s changing. There’s more and more suburbanization, and that’s likely to change … how it votes,” he said, pointing to the Kitchener urban component gaining strength over the rural portions of the riding.

That would be indicative of an already established divide between rural and urban parts of the country, with suburban areas – particularly the likes of the so-called 905 area around Toronto – providing swing votes.

Nationally, Kay’s projections show a slight shift of one or two seats in favour of the Conservatives in the past week based on recent polling numbers, though the polls don’t yet reflect the televised leaders’ debate from October 7.

The update data on the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy site puts the Liberals in a minority government situation with 156 seats, down from 184 it took in 2015. Kay’s projection has the Conservatives at 137 seats (99 in 2015), the NDP at 18 (44), the Bloc Quebecois at 20 (10), the Greens with five (one), the People’s Party of Canada with one and one independent.

The Bloc’s resurgence in Quebec will take seats away from the NDP, he predicted, with PPC leader Maxime Bernier retaining his seat despite switching from the Conservatives. The Green Party’s projected five seats would come from British Columbia, also eating into NDP support.

Ontario is likely to be the difference-maker in ultimately deciding who holds power after October 21.

To encourage thoughtful and respectful conversations, first and last names will appear with each submission to The Observer's online community. Pseudonyms are not permitted. By submitting a comment, you accept that The Observer has the right to reproduce and publish that comment in whole or in part, in any manner The Observer chooses. Please note that The Observer does not endorse the opinions expressed in comments. Comments on this story are moderated according to our submission guidelines. Comments are welcome while open. We reserve the right to close comments at any time.


Sketches of our town

Slowing down and taking in our surroundings – the proverbial stopping to smell the roses – is oft discussed but seldom acted on. The measures put in place to slow the coronavirus...

In Print. Online. In Pictures. In Depth.

You obviously love community journalism. Thanks for visiting today. If you have a great local story, let us know.

Keeping the lights on at Elmira biogas plant

With much of the province shut down, demand for electricity has dropped, but it’s business as usual for the biogas plant in...
- Advertisement -