Spring was cold and wet, a far cry from the much summery weather we’ve come to expect of May and even April. With summer’s official arrival Friday, will things get better?
Not likely, at least not for a while, says Michael Carter, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.
“We’ve had a few warm, sunny days scattered here and there but I think predominantly the pattern has been on the cool and rainy side,” said Carter. “The overall trend is going to be a continued wet and active pattern. Higher than normal humidity, higher than normal rainfall, and precipitation really continuing to run above normal for the next several weeks and months.”
Fortunately, the cooler-than-normal pattern will begin to retreat a little bit as summer goes on, with temperatures expected to return to near normal.
The first day of summer is expected to be 23 degrees – just a little below average for this time of year – and temperatures should stay in that range heading into next week.
There is a bit of unpredictability to this forecast, as southern Ontario and Quebec are wedged between a hot summer to the south and a cool summer to the north.
Chris Scott, the chief meteorologist at The Weather Network, predicts higher-than-average precipitation for southern Ontario, to go along with cooler temperatures.
“A changeable summer is likely from the Prairies, through Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada, with less extreme heat compared to last summer. The weather pattern is likely to become stormy at times with above normal precipitation forecast for parts of Southern Ontario and Quebec,” said Scott in a release.
The Weather Network examines water temperature in various global areas, including the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the Gulf Stream in the U.S. to make these predictions. Meteorologists note that water levels have been running above average for the past several months, meaning there will be more moisture to work with.
While last year’s summer was notable for less precipitation and 10-14 days above 30 degrees, summer 2019 is expected to be vastly different.
“The heat was really the big headline feature for summer in 2018,” said Carter. “In 2019 we do not expect the heat to become nearly as much of a story for us this year. So temperatures are starting a bit below normal early in the season, and then trending towards normal later on. But really an overall absence of heat.”
This absence of heat trend will be noticeable in the interior of Canada away from the coast. For example, in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, heat will be harder to find this year. But out in British Columbia, the outlook is expected to be warmer-than-normal.
Over the course of the summer, most Ontarians will see temperatures below normal, though those of us living in the southern areas will be closer to seasonal values.